Trump’s tariff war has failed on every front - The Business Times

March 28, 2026 · Google News — Tariffs · View source ↗

A recent study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), as reported by The Business Times, concludes that former President Donald Trump's "tariff war" largely failed to achieve its stated objectives. The primary goals of these tariffs were to reduce the United States' trade deficit, bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., and compel trading partners, particularly China, to alter what were deemed unfair trade practices. However, the study indicates that these ambitious targets were not met, and in many cases, the outcomes were contrary to the intended effects.

The implications of these findings are significant for importers, customs brokers, and trade compliance officers. The study highlights that U.S. consumers ultimately bore nearly the entire cost of the tariffs, estimated at a substantial US$200 billion annually, effectively acting as a tax on American households and businesses. Furthermore, while the trade deficit with China did see a reduction, this was largely offset by increased deficits with other countries, leading to an overall increase in the U.S. trade deficit. Domestic manufacturing employment growth also lagged behind pre-tariff rates, and China did not fundamentally change its trade practices, while U.S. exporters faced retaliatory tariffs from other nations.

Specific data points from the study underscore these failures. The U.S. trade deficit expanded by 25% from 2017 to 2023, reaching an estimated US$1.06 trillion by the end of that period. Manufacturing employment grew by only 1.6% between 2017 and 2023, a slower pace compared to the 2.4% growth observed in the six years prior to the implementation of the tariffs (2011-2017). While the article discusses the overall impact of the tariff regime that began in 2018, it focuses on the economic outcomes rather than specific current tariff rates or Harmonized System (HS) codes. The core message is that the tariffs did not achieve their strategic goals and imposed significant costs without the desired benefits.

For importers and trade compliance professionals, these findings reinforce the importance of meticulous supply chain management and cost analysis in a persistent high-tariff environment. Despite the study's conclusions regarding the tariffs' effectiveness, many of these duties remain in place, continuing to impact import costs. Importers should:

Continue to factor existing tariffs into their landed cost calculations: Understand the ongoing financial burden of tariffs on imported goods.
Monitor trade policy developments: Stay informed about potential changes in tariff policies, including any reviews or adjustments that may occur under current or future administrations.
Evaluate supply chain resilience: Assess and diversify supply chains to mitigate risks associated with trade barriers and geopolitical shifts.
Engage in strategic planning: Develop long-term strategies that account for the potential for continued trade friction and the associated costs, rather than relying on the expectation of immediate tariff removals.